Why Trump Secured a Breakthrough in Gaza But Faces Challenges With Vladimir Putin Over Ukraine

Reports of an upcoming American-Russian leadership meeting have been overstated, it seems.

Just days after Donald Trump said he intended to confer with Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "in approximately a fortnight" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.

A initial get-together by the both countries' top diplomats has been called off, as well.

"I don't want to have a wasted meeting," President Trump told the press at the executive mansion on Tuesday afternoon. "I aim to avoid a pointless effort, so I'll see what transpires."

• Donald Trump states he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after plan for Putin talks postponed
• Letdown in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky departs White House without results

The frequently changing summit is just the latest twist in the president's efforts to broker an conclusion to hostilities in Ukraine – a topic of renewed focus for the American leader after he orchestrated a ceasefire and hostage release agreement in the Palestinian territory.

During a speech in the North African country last week to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, the president turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.

"We have to get the Russian situation done," he declared.

However, the circumstances that converged to make a Middle East success possible for Witkoff and his team may be difficult to replicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been raging for nearing several years.

Less Leverage

Per the lead negotiator, the key to achieving a deal was the Israeli government's decision to strike Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a action that angered America's Arab allies but gave Trump leverage to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into making a deal.

Trump benefited from a history of siding with Israel dating back to his first term, including his choice to relocate the US embassy to the contested city, to change America's position on the legality of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his backing for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.

The American leader, actually, is more popular among the Israeli public than Netanyahu – a position that provided him with special sway over the nation's head.

Add in the president's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the area, and he had a abundant diplomatic muscle to secure an agreement.

Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, the president has much less influence. Over the past nine months, he has vacillated between efforts to pressure the Russian president and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.

Trump has threatened to impose new sanctions on Russian energy exports and to provide the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also recognised that such actions could harm the global economy and intensify the war.

Meanwhile, the US leader has publicly berated Zelensky, temporarily cutting off information exchange with the country and pausing weapon deliveries to the nation - then to retreat in the face of worried European partners who warn a defeat of Ukraine could destabilise the whole area.

Trump often boasts about his ability to meet and hammer out agreements, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to advance the war any closer to a peaceful end.

Putin may actually be using Trump's desire for a deal – and belief in direct negotiations - as a means of manipulating him.

In July, Putin consented to a high-level meeting in Alaska at the time when it seemed probable that Trump would sign off on congressional sanctions package supported by Senate Republicans. That legislation was subsequently put on hold.

Last week, as reports spread that the US administration was seriously contemplating sending long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the president of Russia called Trump who then promoted the potential summit in Budapest.

The next day, the president welcomed Zelensky at the executive residence, but left empty-handed after a allegedly strained discussion.

The US leader insisted that he was not being manipulated by the Russian president.

"As you are aware, I've been played throughout my career by the best of them, and I emerged successfully," he remarked.

But the president of Ukraine subsequently commented on the timeline of developments.

"Once the issue of long-range mobility became a less accessible for us – for our nation – the Russian side quickly became less engaged in negotiations," he said.

Thus, in a matter of days, the president has shifted from entertaining the prospect of providing weapons to Ukraine to planning a meeting in Hungary with Putin and privately urging Zelensky to cede all of Donbas – even land Russia has been unable to conquer.

He has ultimately settled on advocating a ceasefire along present frontlines – something the Russian government has rejected.

On the campaign trail last year, the candidate vowed that he could resolve the conflict in Ukraine in a matter of hours. He has since discarded that commitment, saying that ending the hostilities is turning out more difficult than he anticipated.

It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his power – and the difficulty of finding a framework for peace when both parties wants, or is able to, cease hostilities.