Moving from Grudging Admiration to Disquiet: Russia Weighs Up the Fall of Maduro.

A surprise raid against the capital city under cover of darkness, ending with the capture of the nation's leader. By the next morning, the intervening power declares its plan to rule for an indefinite period.

That was the scenario Russia's president imagined his large-scale offensive of Ukraine playing out in early 2022. Instead, it was the former US president who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a operation labeled illegal by many, whisking away the Kremlin's longtime partner the Venezuelan president, who is set to be tried in New York.

Official Outrage and Private Thoughts

In public, Moscow's representatives have reacted with anger, condemning the attack as a flagrant violation of global norms and a worrying development. Yet beyond the rhetoric, there is a sense of grudging respect – and even jealousy – at the effectiveness of a power grab that Russia once imagined, but could not carry out due to critical intelligence failures and Ukraine's strong resistance.

“The mission was executed with precision,” wrote the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel a popular military blog. “Most likely, this is exactly how our 'special military operation' was meant to unfold: swift, decisive and conclusive. It’s difficult to imagine [Valery] Gerasimov expected to be engaged in combat for this long.”

These observations have fueled a mood of introspection among hardline commentators, with some openly questioning how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine turned into a protracted and deadly conflict.

Olga Uskova, said she felt “embarrassment” on behalf of her country given how brazen the American action appeared to be. “In the space of a day, the US detained Venezuela's leader and apparently concluded his own 'special military operation,’” she wrote.

Allies in Decline

For more than two decades, Venezuela sought to cultivate a web of anti-American allies – from Moscow and Beijing to Havana and Tehran – hoping to helping to shape a new axis capable of standing up to Washington.

Yet despite Russia's foreign minister pledging support for the Caracas government just in late December, hardly any experts ever believed Moscow would intervene meaningfully.

Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, watched other important partners fall from power or weaken sharply – from Syria's leader to an increasingly weakened Iran – exposing the limits of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the circumstances are profoundly awkward,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a close partner and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have longstanding ties, forcing Moscow into little choice but to express outrage. Yet providing any tangible support to a country so distant is simply impossible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

Focus on the Main Front

Analysts point to a more practical calculation. Putin's priority, analysts say, is Ukraine – and maintaining a productive dialogue with Trump on that front far outweighs the fate of Caracas.

“Putin and Trump are presently engaged with a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a broader geopolitical contest with a critical partner over what it sees as a secondary concern,” Lukyanov added.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Still, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a pro-American administration takes power in Caracas, US defense specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including advanced Russian-made systems.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM anti-aircraft systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.

Moscow has also provided billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.

A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is oil: American control over Venezuela's vast reserves could push global prices lower, endangering one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'friends' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Yet, some in Moscow perceive a grim silver lining. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they contend, could deal a final blow to the rules-based international order and usher in a more nakedly 19th-century-style world – one where might, rather than law, shapes outcomes.

“The US administration is ruthless and pragmatic in pursuing its country's interests,” wrote Russia's former president with endorsement. “Removing Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The principle of might makes right is evidently more powerful than international law.”